The Race Card

I've seen a lot of articles in recent weeks claiming the only way Barack Obama could lose the election would be if Americans were too racist to vote for him. Those writers spend a lot of time talking about the so-called Bradley Effect--when polls show a black candidate with a lead but voters cast their ballots for the white candidate. According to a recent Gallup survey (see link below), this election cycle may actually lead to discussion of an Obama Effect--when minority candidates actually benefit from their race.

When asked if Obama's race made them less likely to vote for him, six percent of respondents said yes. That sounds bad until you read the rest of the survey. Nine percent of respondents said Obama's race made them more likely to vote for him. That's a three percent gain among voters who say race influences their choice.

If Gallup's survey is an accurate reflection of the electorate and Obama wins by a popular vote margin of three percent or less, it will be McCain who can argue that racism sunk his campaign.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx