The way the Democratic Party apportions delegates is, to put it lightly, a convoluted process.^ Under their proportional system of awarding pledged* delegates, the current tally is:
Barack Obama 1344
Hillary Clinton 1208
(March 5/RealClearPolitics)
If, instead, the delegates in those states had been awarded under a winner-take-all system, the tally would be:
Hillary Clinton 1738
Barack Obama 1530
This is relevant because US presidents are still determined by Electoral College tallies, which are winner-take-all in 48 states. (Maine and Nebraska award by congressional district.) The candidates’ respective EC scores at present would be:
Hillary Clinton 219
Barack Obama 188
As their contest continues in Wyoming, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and beyond, it seems clear Obama will maintain his delegate lead, but he will be unable to garner enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Meanwhile, Clinton will most likely win Pennsylvania, maintaining her advantage in the Electoral College count. The practical upshot of this is a Democratic National Convention where both sides have a mathematical case for the nomination and everyone in Denver needs a helmet.
^The Republican nomination process is also ridiculously complex, but it seems downright elementary by comparison.
*These are the delegates voted on in caucuses and primaries, not the super-delegates.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
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1 comments:
As you may know, the Democrats had some winner-take-all primaries as recently--I believe--as 1972. That year, the contest drew to a head in California with George McGovern needing a win to get within short enough distance of the nomination to force the party establishment to sort of go along. His opponent was Hubert Humphrey, a late entrant after Edmund Muskie, Birch Bayh, and a variety of others lost out to the power and organization of what Gary Hart called "the McGovern Army." In some ways like Hillary has now, Humphrey had a war hanging around his neck and in spite of a vigorous campaign, it cost him a good chance to beat McGovern.
Humphrey's people and the party establishment tried to get the California delegates--winner-take-all--split proportionately at the Convention, but lost in the Rules Committee and the nomination went to McGovern. I believe starting in 1976, the party decided to award delegates more or less as they do now, which has worked well sometimes, but every so often has caused primary battles that do more harm than good in November.
Given, however, the way the country perceives Bush and, by association, McCain, I think either Hillary, but especially Obama, will leave Denver with a lead that McCain will have to work very, very hard to overcome. The Democrats will also have a large advantage in money, especially if they do not take public financing, which might cause other problems. But since most Americans do not seem to care one whit about campaign finance issues, with a bit of deft handling and changing the subject, that matter may fade into that good night. Hope you're well--
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